Joel D. Howell is a Professor at the University of Michigan in the departments of Internal Medicine (Medical School), Health Management and Policy (School of Public Health), and History (College of Literature, Science, and the Arts), as well as the Victor C. Vaughan Professor of the History of Medicine. He received his M.D. at the University of Chicago, and stayed at that institution for his internship and residency in internal medicine. At the University of Pennsylvania, he was a Robert Wood Johnson Clinical Scholar, and received his Ph.D. in the History and Sociology of Science.
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Raymond De Vries PhD is Associate Director at the Center for Bioethics and Social Sciences in Medicine at the University of Michigan and is a Professor in the Department of Learning Health Sciences and the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology. He is also visiting professor at CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, University of Maastricht, the Netherlands.
J. Scott Roberts, PhD
Professor of Health Behavior & Health Education
Jim Burke, M.D. is a neurologist who completed residency and a stroke fellowship at the University of Michigan. His undergraduate degree is from the University of Notre Dame and his medical degree from the Loyola University Stritch School of Medicine. He is interested in understanding how physicians use the complex information acquired from modern diagnostic tests and improving decisions to order such tests.
Click to decide between death and living with a colostomy. Which would you choose? Are you sure?
Given the choice, would you choose immediate death,or living with a colostomy (where part of your bowel is removed and you have bowel movements into a plastic pouch attached to your belly)?
- Immediate Death
Think about what it would be like if you were diagnosed with colon cancer. You are given the option of choosing between two surgical treatments.The first is a surgery that could result in serious complications and the second has no chance of complications but has a higher mortality rate.
|Possible outcome||Surgery 1
|Cure without complication||80%||80%|
|Cure with colostomy||1%|
|Cure with chronic diarrhea||1%|
|Cure with intermittent bowel obstruction||1%|
|Cure with wound infection||1%|
|No cure (death)||16%||20%|
If you had the type of colon cancer described above, which surgery do you think you would choose?
- Surgery 1
- Surgery 2
How do your answers compare?
Are you saying what you really mean?
CBDSM investigators Brian Zikmund-Fisher, Angela Fagerlin, Peter Ubel, teamed up with Jennifer Amsterlaw, to see if they could reduce the number of people choosing the surgery with the higher rate of death and therefore reducing the discrepancy. A large body of past research has shown that people are notoriously averse to uncertainty. The investigators had a hunch that uncertainty could account for some of the discrepancy. Surgery 1 has a greater number of ambiguous outcomes, perhaps causing people to be averse to it. In an effort to minimize this uncertainty, the investigators laid out a series of scenarios outlining different circumstances and presentations of the two surgeries. For example the research presented some of the participants with a reframing of the surgery information, such as:
|Possible outcome||Surgery 1
|Cured without complication||80%||80%|
|Cured, but with one of the following complications: colostomy, chronic diarrhea, intermittent bowl obstruction, or wound infection||4%|
|No cure (death)||16%||20%|
The investigators believed by grouping all of the complications together that people would be more apt to chose the surgery with the lower mortality rate, because seeing a single group of undesirable outcomes, versus a list, may decrease some of the ambiguity from previous research.
Although none of the manipulations significantly reduced the percentage of participants selecting Surgery 2, the versions that yielded the lowest preference for this surgery all grouped the risk of the four possible complications into a single category, as in the example shown above.
Why these findings are important
Over the past several decades there has been a push to give patients more information so they can make decisions that are consistent with their personal preferences. On the other hand there is a growing psychological literature revealing people's tendency to make choices that are in fact inconsistent with their own preferences; this is a dilemma. Because the present research suggests that the discrepancy between value and surgery choice is extremely resilient, much research still needs to be done in order to understand what underlies the discrepancy, with the goal of eliminating it.
The research reported in this decision of the month is currently in press. Please come back to this page in the near future for a link to the article.
Read the article:
Can avoidance of complications lead to biased healthcare decisions?
Amsterlaw J, Zikmund-Fisher BJ, Fagerlin A, Ubel PA. Judgment and Decision Making 2006;1(1):64-75.
Sarah Alvarez, a fellow at Stanford and formerly of Michigan Radio, will present her work on creating a news product that can meet the information needs of low-income news consumers. Specifically her focus is on how to use data to discover which issues or systems information gaps exist for low-income news consumers and once the gaps are identified how the information should be presented to help people understand the information and use it to make decisions.
If you plan to attend this meeting please e-mail Nicole Exe at firstname.lastname@example.org by Monday November 2. If you decide to attend after that date you are still welcome and do not need to e-mail.